The Crypto market is once again in turmoil. Before everyone thought LUNA and 3AC were big, now FTX and Alameda are also in this situation. I wonder if any of you have lost a lot after these incidents? Before LUNA, I wasn't too surprised, but FTX falling into this tragedy is a real boom.
The incident has already happened, let's sit down and share our thoughts and discuss to learn lessons, as well as opportunities for the future!
About Technical Analysis of FTT coin
As for FTT's chart, you only need to turn on frame D or H4 to see its entire uptrend. There is a problem with the chart between the D frame and the H4 frame, which is a bit ghostly, so I will choose to analyze on the H4 frame.
A quick look at the chart can immediately see the volume of the large frame uptrend
This international agreement is so clear that there is no need to discuss anything. Next, I searched for all unused OB blocks and found that the entire uptrend did not have any unused OB blocks.
Therefore, I think that FTT coin will increase steadily and I think this uptrend is quite good. And because there is no unused OB, when applying lesson 6 OB x CTTT, we can make an observation that if this uptrend continues to increase, the price will not be able to break the block of OB after the KLQT.
So that …
The time it broke was also the time when BTC reached the 30K mark for the first time in the weekly frame. With the BTC chart, the BTC price has not broken the weekly frame, but the FTT chart has the FTT price breaking it.
=> Signs of the dowtrend.
And with the following 3 signs
- The price broke the OB block after the KLQT of a large uptrend
- Momentum decreased sharply
- The price rebounded to where the new downtrend started and has not been broken yet
=> So nothing has changed. The large uptrend is still reversed and the downtrend is still established.
And if according to my arguments in terms of technical analysis, with all that is available, this chart does not have a single unused OB block, then there is a high possibility that the FTT price will return to the place where the trend started. its increasing direction.
But those things are only in terms of technical analysis. In terms of fundamental analysis, Sam Bankman-Fried (Founder FTX, Alameda fund) is a whale with good numbers in the market, a top 2 figure in the crypto market.
I also evaluated FTT as a potential coin that still spends a small amount of money to buy and invest automatically. And when BTC hits bottom, you can also consider buying a portion of the coin.
Where to buy, just wait for BTC to reach the lower price range, but I'm not sure that FTT price can reach the starting point of the trend as described in technical analysis because the popularity and size are not moderate. Regarding where the trend started, the coin seems a bit trashy, not very good. Or about where the trend started, but that was when BTC was also at the bottom.
Yet after a drama, the price dropped its pants and returned to where the trend started
If you only consider purely technical analysis, you can start buying now, but with the current market overview and the overview of everything surrounding Sam Bankman-Fried, is FTT still worth buying?
Note: These are just some of my personal thoughts, not investment advice.
Will FTX be like LUNA?
I don't think this, because LUNA is essentially a Ponzi that only uses high interest payments to raise capital. FTX is an exchange, has revenue and creates value, so there are differences.
Maybe FTX will be acquired by another force, a backer in the traditional market who wants to step into Crypto for example. But Binance is probably difficult because of anti-monopoly.
However, even if FTX is saved, it is unknown what the FTT token will be like? And if the exchange has lost trust, will customers continue to use it? Or will FTT have a special application to return in the future? I don't know this.
As for me, I won't try to catch a falling knife. I'll still leave the automatic investment I bought and see how the situation goes.
Lessons from the past of the Downtrend season
No matter what you say, investing is risky, Crypto is a market that is many times more risky if you do not equip yourself with knowledge and protect yourself. Risks range from wallet security, anti-hacking, scams to extreme fluctuations and great temptation if you don't know how to control greed.
Before when LUNA collapsed, I also wrote an article about lessons learned that everyone can review at: The answer is definitely nothing…
The current economy is difficult, the markets are having unexpected falls. Funds, exchanges, and organizations are considered the holy sharks of the market. But the market will still be there, what is important is what lessons we learn through these times to prepare for the next uptrend. Because after each season, the market is upgraded, the falls are also more severe.
And the lesson I learned is:
- Limit the use of Margin and Borrow in investing in any investment market. 3AC, FTX, Alameda are all considered big sharks of the market but all suffered the consequences of being liquidated. So in the long term, if we are not able to control risks, we should avoid them.
- Do not go all in on any project. No matter how big the backer is.
- Risk management allocates capital to different coins depending on the level of risk. The long-term holding part, the risky part is for surfing and buying high-risk small caps.
- Always keep a certain amount of cash in your assets to wait for better opportunities.
- Not catching a falling knife, last time I had some fun with LUNA in a lottery style, mostly due to greed, but luckily I didn't this time at FTT because I learned the previous lesson. And I don't think I'm suitable for this type of investment with big risks and catching a falling knife.
- The market always has waves, in downtrend, expectations should be reduced to short profit taking instead of expecting x5, x10 like uptrend.
- Less FOMO following news and funds, looking forward to drama. If you read it, choose it with the mindset of using it to think about what opportunities there are from it instead of cursing and following the negative crowd without bringing anything for yourself.
What are the opportunities from FTX's slide this time?
Currently, I think with the economic situation and the ruins that outsiders have been looking at Crypto in recent times, it will be difficult for new money to enter the market. We probably still have to wait for prices to get better and there is something groundbreaking. Because of greed, everyone forgot about the painful time just now before we can grow as strongly as in 2021. However, I think these The opportunity will still be there.
Using customer deposits to invest is certainly used by many CEX exchanges and organizations, but after this FTX incident, user trust will decrease a lot, possibly creating a promotional opportunity for DEFI. develop.
Crypto was born to decentralize but currently great power is in the hands of Binance and CZ. If following the conspiracy theory is not natural, CZ recently tweeted that Binance spent a lot of money to invest in DEFI, launched Binance Oracle, then massacred FTX.
FTX is strong in trading and derivatives, so in the future, derivatives trading money can be directed to other exchanges, especially decentralized exchanges. However, it will have to be on fast, low-fee platforms or on private sidechains.
Recently emerging include Arbitrum, private chains from Cosmos such as SEI and especially not to be forgotten is CZ's BNB chain. I think maybe in the future derivatives exchanges on DEFI will thrive thanks to Oracle and their own chains for fast processing and cheap fees.
That's an opportunity in my opinion, but it doesn't mean I should buy from now. I still have to wait for BTC's reaction, the market situation and technical analysis to find a buying point.
Winter will probably still be long with the current situation, so for now I still automatically invest daily and spend a small amount of money to invest during this downtrend season. The rest is still in cash + USD to wait for opportunities with better prices.
As I have shared before, automatic DCA of large assets will reduce risks and FOMO according to the market. We also don't know how many more blows there will be to bring the market down even deeper before entering the new season. If there is a long-term downtrend, automatic buying will also accumulate more coins and avoid holding capital all in.
In this article, I only write about my own thoughts and let you guys discuss together, not investment advice. As long as Sam Temple is gone, we should not trust anyone.
I wonder if having brothers after this FTX incident will have any effect? I'm stuck with buying TT automatic DCA
